The EU summit on Russia and Georgia will be a very important one. I’m sure Russia feels resentment about the way the EU and NATO are encroaching on what they see as their sphere of influence. It is also possible to understand Russian resentment about their loss of power and influence since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
It also seems likely that Georgia made a critical error in resorting to force against the Russian minority even if they had been provoked by Russian encouragement of the minority. None of this should detract from the criticism of Russia. Its response was designed as a warning to the EU and NATO. The implications however go well beyond that. If countries like the Ukraine and Georgia are not going to be allowed by Russia to elect to join NATO and the EU then they become buffer states between the EU and Russia. Hardly desirable by them and not good for future relations between Russia and Europe.
Russian nationalism has always been strong. Based on the anger about past failures it is particularly strong now. With the use of Polonium 210 to poison Litvinenko, the treatment of the British Council and BP and the attacks on journalism not to mention the dependence of Europe on Russian energy you have to be worried!
The EU is an emerging super power. Russia is a collapsed super power trying to restore its position in the world. This is a recipe for confrontation that we need to resolve sooner rather than later.
Quite right, Lord Soley, quite right.
I really wish the EU could put up a much more united front than it has been doing though. Not only has Russia (or rather its oligarchs) grown fat of bilateral deals for energy, but it has sown political disruption too.
If Russia isn’t stopped now then it could get used to behaving in this way, thats what is most worrying.
Saakashvili wandered straight into Putins trap – we should tread more carefully.
I’d dispute that the EU is an emerging superpower, Lord Soley, albeit only in economic terms…militarily it’s still a pygmy, and I suspect it will remain so – NATO is still the primary field of European defence co-operation, and with some EU countries having strict neutrality policies, this is unlikely to change, in my view.
However, on the rest I agree with you – Russia is very angry with the way it’s been treated (largely because Yeltsin was a very feeble leader), and is now sufficiently reorganised after the chaos of the last 15 years to try and turn back the clock somehow.
I’d wager it’s not simply a case of restoring the Soviet Union, more one of restoring the situation and attitudes of the pre-1918 Russian Empire- nationalism and leadership.
I notice that the majority of people in this country seem largely unconcerned about the situation – at least among my circles of friends. I bet it’s much more of an issue the closer to Moscow you get – I can imagine the feelings in the Baltics (who are fortunately protected by NATO and EU membership, and Ukraine (who unfortunately are not). Ukraine remains a powderkeg of opposing loyalties and I don’t expect the uneasy peace there to remain.
I must commend the Foreign Office’s calm reaction to the crisis however and Gordon Brown’s speech on the BBC the other day was very firm and calm and set out quite clearly what Russia is facing. M. Sarkozy of France has also done a lot to ease tensions. But I hope more can be done to help Georgia, who must be very frightened of Russia right now, but also very fazed at the West.
A limited Cold War of sorts could be on the cards, which will limit our freedom of action. Russia, China and Iran could make a formidable coalition to promote an alternate international system, Russia providing the military might, China the economic might, and Iran the oil.
Adrian, you wrong about the EU.
In this world, you no longer need to be a military power to be a superpower, the EU is more of a ‘Super-Influencer’ – able to change how countries behave, thats the EU’s true power.
Your scenario of a new cold war is also to simplistic, I feel. Mainly because China is far more capitalist today than ever before – if it was to keep up its economic growth, then it needs to engage with us, with the EU. And thats when the EU influence comes into play. They really can’t *afford* isolation.
Russia is a Superpower again as the United States, CNN (as stated here on CNN August 1, 2008) and other news media’s have admitted http://www.kommersant.com/page.asp?id=768929 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8dNr2GH08I, this is an NATO expansion war. US former president Ronald Reagan promise Russia there would be no NATO expansion into post Soviet Union countries back 1989 which has clearly been violated. NATO is the new cold war, they are expanding and we cannot trust NATO. NATO is evil and Russia is the ally here. People need to Google the truth about what NATO means and what relation is NATO, EU & Bilderberg together. I support Russia and I am against NATO, NATO is the enemy here. NATO wants to expand membership and spread every they can into more countries. NATO is about building a military block and when countries apply for NATO membership, they wave their rights to protect themselves or governored themselves but are under the rules of NATO. It is a communist movement on a private sector by NATO and this is wrong. Russia & China has been dead set against NATO and this is why. I want Russia to make its stance and stand against NATO, this evil lying agency that has no business taking countries rights away.
Who start this conflick? Georgia, NATO & the US, read link by Pat Buchanan :http://www.lewrockwell.com/buchanan/buchanan94.html and this video link here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBRl-BvKJII
And read what Ron Paul has said about NATO pushing into Russia: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyJiWYmXGLY
Here is a couple of Americans living in Georgia admitting Georgia & the US started the conflicts with Russia and that Georgia was indeed killing Russian people inside of Georgia. Something the US bilderberg media is not going to air on US television news channels.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4DdRmALFYg
Troika, I can certainly accept your view of the EU as influencer. What I don’t see is the EU being a military superpower outside of its military Member States of the UK and France. Given Germany’s aversion to military adventures and a lot of Member States having constitutional clauses on neutrality, I don’t see this changing.
I think China is still in development over where it will choose to take itself. It is certainly on the road to a capitalist state, but outside of the coastal cities there is poverty and backwardness on a par with some of the poorest countries in the world. I still personally can see how China will seek to establish an alternate cluster of states to challenge the West – not necessarily overturn it (I don’t think it’d be capable of that), but provide an alternate grouping. It’s not isolation as such if they bring Russia, Japan, South Korea, and IndoChina into their orbit, as they seem to be doing.
But I am quite prepared to accept I’m wrong on that, and I’ll look forward to hearing what you think!
Adrian, nice to have a little conversation. 🙂
The point about the EU is that its rather banking on that you don’t need to be military power to qualify as a superpower, even if our concepts of superpower (or just power in general) have always been wrapped up with military force.
But, I do agree, the EU needs to place more of an emphasis on its military, even if only to avoid duplication. Also, if countries fight under an EU flag, then thats the way to circumvent any individual countries policies on neutrality.
I think the important thing you’re over looking with China is that, in order or the country to develop – they need our markets, while aligning themselves with Iran and Russia may bring them fuel, it will not provide them with markets to sell the produced goods too, all that China has gained would crumble away. The development of China’s economy will only happen if it engages with us, and that brings it back to my point about the EU’s as an influencer.
I think your argument that over Chinas influence is misleading – just because those countries are close to the Peaoples Republic, does not mean that they are prepared to ally with it.
India is the main one there. As an emerging power itself – it is unlikely to want to yoke itself to China; I’m quite sure it, like all other ‘Modern’ nations (to use Robert Coopers phrase), would much rather chance going-alone. Plus, although historic animosity is begining to thaw, this has happened only recently and will still take some time.
I cannot conceive of reasons why South Korea and Japan would be willing to form an alliance, those countries are too western, and again, historic animosity plays its part.
Quite simply, how can I put this, China lacks … clout.
*****
I do apologise, that was something of an essay.
There is an honest but sometimes brutal side to Russians and politics including fisticuffs in the Duma. Perhaps it can be attributed to beginnings in the post roman dark ages.
Quote from Wiki:
The Russian Federation is the successor to earlier forms of continuous statehood, starting from 9 century AD when Rurik, a viking warrior, established “Russ” or “Rhos” state at Novgorod, traditionally taken as the beginning of Russian statehood.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_of_Russia
It is this long history, much older than our own that makes all Russians proud of their heritage; so when a Russian perceives the distress of another Russian the mandate to act is already a given.
Nobody has mentioned the fact that both the Russian upper house, the Federation Council and the Lower House, the State Duma have both approved the actions taken by government. The morality of the act is entirely a Russian one.
Russia borders some 16 countries with many more near to its shores:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia
This perhaps contributes to their sense of paranoia; the prospect of wars being fought on many fronts to protect their natural resources and people.
When the media presents the faces of Putin and Dmitry Medvedev both are careful not to smile. This is very wise on their part; their demeanour reflects the everyday hardship that Russians have to endure, something totally alien to a prosperous west.
It is also very inscrutable, something our politicians have long forgotten. More importantly it mourns the millions of Russian that died cruel deaths during WW2 defending their homeland and distracting a powerful enemy to our advantage.
Be thankful Lord Soley, the Russians through their Eastern war, the Crimea, gave you something that your party cherishes very much. Income tax!
Refs:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federation_Council_of_Russia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Duma
Russia is a Superpower again as the United States, CNN (as stated here on CNN August 1, 2008) and other news media’s have admitted http://www.kommersant.com/page.asp?id=768929 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8dNr2GH08I, this is an NATO expansion war. US former president Ronald Reagan promise Russia there would be no NATO expansion into post Soviet Union countries back 1989 which has clearly been violated. NATO is the new cold war, they are expanding and we cannot trust NATO. NATO is evil and Russia is the ally here. People need to Google the truth about what NATO means and what relation is NATO, EU & Bilderberg together. I support Russia and I am against NATO, NATO is the enemy here. NATO wants to expand membership and spread every they can into more countries. NATO is about building a military block and when countries apply for NATO membership, they wave their rights to protect themselves or governored themselves but are under the rules of NATO. It is a communist movement on a private sector by NATO and this is wrong. Russia & China has been dead set against NATO and this is why. I want Russia to make its stance and stand against NATO, this evil lying agency that has no business taking countries rights away.
Who start this conflick? Georgia, NATO & the US, read link by Pat Buchanan :http://www.lewrockwell.com/buchanan/buchanan94.html and this video link here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBRl-BvKJII
And read what Ron Paul has said about NATO pushing into Russia: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zyJiWYmXGLY
Here is a couple of Americans living in Georgia admitting Georgia & the US started the conflicts with Russia and that Georgia was indeed killing Russian people inside of Georgia. Something the US bilderberg media is not going to air on US television news channels.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4DdRmALFYg
We have to understand that Russia is protecting itself from NATO.
NATO is an organization whose purpose ended with the end of its Warsaw Pact adversary. When NATO struggled to define its future after the Cold War, it settled on attacking a sovereign state, Yugoslavia, which had neither invaded nor threatened any NATO member state.
This current round of NATO expansion is a political reward to governments in Georgia and Ukraine that came to power as a result of US-supported revolutions, the so-called Orange Revolution and Rose Revolution. The governments that arose from these street protests were eager to please their US sponsor and the US, in turn, turned a blind eye to the numerous political and human rights abuses that took place under the new regimes. Thus the US policy of “exporting democracy” has only succeeding in exporting more misery to the countries it has targeted.
NATO expansion only benefits the US military industrial complex, which stands to profit from expanded arms sales to new NATO members. The “modernization” of former Soviet militaries in Ukraine and Georgia will mean tens of millions in sales to US and European military contractors. The US taxpayer will be left holding the bill, as the US government will subsidize most of the transactions. Providing US military guarantees to Ukraine and Georgia can only further strain our military. This NATO expansion may well involve the US military in conflicts as unrelated to our national interest as the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia. The idea that American troops might be forced to fight and die to prevent a small section of Georgia from seceding is absurd and disturbing.
By Congressman Ron Paul: http://www.antiwar.com/blog/2008/04/01/ron-paul-disband-nato/
So I have provided these facts below to state Russia is indeed a Superpower.
The Russian empire strikes back 16/08/2008
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1011861.html
Russia confident they are a Superpower again
nytimes.com/2008/08/15/world/europe/15russia.html?scp=1&sq=russia%20superpower%20anne%20barnard&st=cse
THE OUTLOOK ON A TRIPLE-SUPERPOWER WORLD
The Christian Science Monitor
By Helena Cobban from the August 22, 2008 edition
csmonitor.com/2008/0822/p09s03-coop.html
Georgia: a return to superpower misbehaviour
The First Post August 21, 2008
thefirstpost.co.uk/45162,opinion,georgia-a-return-to-superpower-misbehaviour
Merkel’s Most Serious Foreign Policy Crisis: Superpower Flexes its Muscles: 08/18/2008
spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,572726,00.html
U.S. worries Russia returning to its past
Bush administration struggles for right response to Russia’s aggression
Updated 9:39 a.m. PT, Sun., Aug. 17, 2008
msnbc.msn.com/id/26253358
CNN NEWSROOM
Russia Attacks Neighbor; Return of a Superpower; Interview With Sergei Ivanov, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister
Aired August 11, 2008 – 11:00 ET
transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0808/11/cnr.03.html
A Superpower Is Reborn
The New York Times
By RONALD STEEL Published: August 24, 2008
nytimes.com/2008/08/24/opinion/24steel.html
Superpower swoop : New Statesman
Misha Glenny
Published 14 August 2008
newstatesman.com/europe/2008/08/georgia-russia-ukraine-cheney
US worries Russia returning to authoritarian past
By the Associated Press
wokv.com/common/ap/2008/08/17/D92K3M7O0.html
Russians are confident their nation is back as a Superpower
http://www.boston.com/news/world/europe/articles/2008/08/15/russians_are_confident_their_nation_is_back/
Superpower Russia
Published: 8/12/2008
turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=246638
John Roughan: So much for sole superpower
5:00AM Saturday August 16, 2008 New Zealand Herald
nzherald.co.nz/section/466/story.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=10527278&pnum=2
Danger of Cold War
August 18, 2008: The FINANCIAL
finchannel.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=18207&Itemid=14
Washington Acknowledges Russia as Superpower
May 27, 2007
kommersant.com/page.asp?id=768929
Putin’s Paranoid Bear Sharpens Its Claws
The Scotsman: August 18, 2008
gather.com/viewArticle.jsp?articleId=281474977424041
The Red Army marches again: Dailymail
By PETER HITCHENS
Last updated at 22:48 10 May 2008
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-565421/The-Red-Army-marches–I-fear-futures-says-Peter-Hitchens.html
Washington Acknowledges Russia as Superpower
Kommersant: May 26, 2007
kommersant.com/page.asp?id=768929
Russia in the 21st Century: The Prodigal Superpower
books.google.com/books?id=eC6HdSYZhRgC&dq=Russia+in+the+21st+Century:+The+Prodigal+Superpower&pg=PP1&ots=AD3lnsFUdL&sig=XZZre_9YuBdKtxp7k0CmeylD9dQ&hl=en&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=1&ct=result#PPR9,M1
amazon.com/Russia-21st-Century-Prodigal-Superpower/dp/0521545293/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1219706181&sr=1-3
Global Warming, the Arctic Thaw and the New Cold War
Why Russia’s Incursion Into Georgia Bodes Ill for the Climate
August 18, 2008
thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/blogs/shapley/arctic-thaw-47081802
U.S. No More The Only Super Power
Michael Webster, Investigative Reporter: American Chronicle
americanchronicle.com/articles/71513
I am concerned that Britain seems to take a lot of grief from the Russians of late simply because we need to trade with them for gas and oil. I am really quite annoyed that they have killed people on our soil they have since gone on to compound that insult by sidelining our companies within Russia. Now we see Russia attacking our allies. I know Georgia is not in Nato however it is in the coalition of the willing and helping us in Iraq. I firmly believe if you are at war and your allies homes start being attacked by a foreign power you must help them. I do not understand why we are not helping the Georgians more openly.
I am sure the Russians are grandstanding. After all if they were attacked why did they have so many tanks waiting on the border to “respond”. What upsets me the most is the fact that Britain takes such a soft approach in every response. How big a nuclear incident does it have to be before Britain does something about these rather rude Russians? Some harsh words in public from the PM would be nice otherwise we may give the impression that we will accept any insult.